Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

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Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by cronus » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:07 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45806599

Hurricane Michael: 'Too late to flee' storm set to hit Florida

US officials say it is too late to flee from the path of Hurricane Michael - a category four storm - hours before it is due to hit the US mainland.

The storm is forecast to make landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast, and is expected to be the largest storm to hit the region in 100 years.

Florida Governor Rick Scott warned citizens of "unimaginable devastation".

At least 13 people reportedly died in Central America over the weekend as a result of storm rains and floods.

The storm has sustained winds of 145mph (230km/h) and is due to make landfall at about midday (16:00 GMT).

Officials warn it is now too late for coastal residents to flee, and that those who remain should seek shelter.

More than 370,000 people in Florida have been ordered to evacuate and move to higher ground, but officials estimate that far fewer have actually left.

"Do not leave your house," Florida Governor Rick Scott said on Wednesday.

"The worst thing you can do now is leave," he said, adding that those who do "put yourself and your family in danger".

(continued)
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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:12 pm

Worst Hurricane Ever.jpg
Currently 10mm of rain falling inland... looks terrible! :hairfire:

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by cronus » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:14 pm

Śiva wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:12 pm
Worst Hurricane Ever.jpg

Currently 10mm of rain falling inland... looks terrible! :hairfire:
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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:25 pm

They're claiming it's a cat 4 hurricane which, if you google it, means 113–136 knots. Windy shows nothing more than 60 kts

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by laklak » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:29 pm

I'm glad we didn't buy that house on St. George Island. On the plus side, there's going to be a lot of cheap property there soon.
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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:32 pm

Am I the only one who sees the winds at no more than 70mph? How the hell is this a cat 4 hurricane of "unimaginable devastation?"

You're a mariner lak, surely you're familiar with windy.com?

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by laklak » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:56 pm

NOAA is saying 145 mph at the eyewall. St. George island is reporting gusts of 90 and sustained of 70. Not sure why there's a discrepancy. Windy is showing wave heights of 31 feet just off Apalachicola. I think this one is going to be water damage more than wind, it's such a compact storm that the winds don't extend that far out. I'm betting Dog Island gets cut in half.

We'd originally planned to move the boat up there this summer, but I never got around to doing it. Mrs. Lak gave me a hard time about it, but it looks like procrastination saved the day.

I'm also glad we never bought that house on Dog Island.
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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:58 pm

I was just watching a live feed from Panama City and I saw swells of no more than 6 feet or so - the trees were barely swaying.

My windy.com has reporting from several airfields in the area and they're showing ~60mph

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:05 pm

Worst Hurricane Ever2.jpg
Here's what I get on windy - with the airfields reports turned on.

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:11 pm

There's also this:

https://aviationweather.gov/taf/data?id ... t+TAF+data
Worst Hurricane Ever3.jpg

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by laklak » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:11 pm

Just starting to get video from several panhandle FB groups. Jesus Christ, it's catastrophic. St. George Island is basically completely underwater, waves breaking through the streets. Cape San Blas appears to be an island, though how much of an island is unknown. No way you're getting there by land for a while. No news from Dog Island, but I'd imagine there wasn't anybody there, there's only about 10 or so year round residents and they don't have land access anyway. The National news guys are still on the west side of landfall, there are no reports from Mexico Beach or Tyndal Air Force Base. The coastal road is washed out in multiple places and I don't even want to think about the boats and marinas. The only lucky part is it's the most uninhabited coastal area in Florida, maybe the Gulf Coast. If this thing had decided to turn right into Tampa or even worse, a left into New Orleans, it'd be goddamned apocalyptic. 3rd most powerful storm in recorded history to make U.S. landfall. It's the late season storms you really gotta watch.
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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by pErvinalia » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:19 pm

Yeah it looks bad. Was close to a Cat 5 when it crossed.
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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:46 pm

Weird... Dog Island is way to the east of the hurricane. Not to mention that the data I have from the weather station in the area show winds not in excess of 32mph.

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by Jason » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:47 pm

Worst Hurricane Ever4.jpg

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Re: Too Late To Flee Mega-Day-After Tomorrow Storm

Post by laklak » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:13 am

It won't be the wind that gets Dog or St. George or Carrabelle (mainland town across the bay from Dog), it's the storm surge. Looks from the National Hurricane Center site that the Carrabelle area got tropical storm force winds, they'd weather that with no sweat. But when the surge is 10 or 15 feet above high tide you're in some shit for sure. I know all the marinas from Port St. Joe east to Carrabelle, they're all fixed, not floating, docks. The Carrabelle marinas are all at the river mouth, just across Apalachicola Bay from the channel between St. George and Dog, so its open to the Gulf. It's going to be a massive fucking mess as that surge bores up the river.
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