US Election 2020

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Tero
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Sun May 26, 2019 1:37 am

The polls ARE tricky. We had one swing district in the state that was worth polling in 2018. The paper had to go out of its way to get 1000-2000 people to poll in a county with a good size population. The poll was accurate, though. For the Democrat/Republican seat.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Mon May 27, 2019 12:33 pm

white old men leading despite being white old men
These survey results challenge existing studies on the role of identity and bias in candidate preferences. Past political science research has found that female candidates win at similar rates to male candidates, but that’s only because the women who enter races tend to be better candidates independent of gender. Based on our study, in this primary, women are actually preferred because of their gender, independent of other attributes. Similarly, when it comes to minority candidates, existing studies are on balance more negative and show that nonwhite candidates have often been penalized, especially by the white electorate. In 2019, however, most Democratic voters—including whites—say they would prefer minority candidates over their white counterparts. This is likely because of the shifting demographic makeup of the party’s primary voters as well as evolving attitudes.

Voters are eager for change, not only in terms of policy but also with regard to who represents them. Clearly, ideological and policy positions are also important, but our research shows that demographic characteristics can certainly affect how voters assess candidates.

So why then are two white men leading in the polls? Our findings give us probabilities based on the demographic traits of hypothetical candidates “all else being equal.” But in the real world, all else is not equal—the real race involves Biden, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren and other candidates with specific histories, skills, foibles and policy positions. And right now, two white guys are in the lead, regardless of what Democratic primary voters prefer in the abstract.

It’s possible that, when presented with real names and backgrounds, Democrats stick with white men because of subconscious biases that affect their judgments of the character, history or “likability” of women and minority candidates. Or it could be that Democratic primary voters who prefer a nonwhite, nonmale candidate believe it’s safer to choose a white man for the general election. (Though a new study suggests that strategy could backfire, because a white male nominee could lower Democratic enthusiasm in the general election.)
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ent-226977
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Wed May 29, 2019 2:28 am

Kamala Harris had a badly fitting pant suit in her town hall. Don't they tailor for women like they do for men? Some light puffy fabric crimped in the back. This is an outfit for working customer service at Target. Or maybe a fancy hotel's reception.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by pErvinalia » Wed May 29, 2019 2:50 am

She needs Hillary's tailor..
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Fri May 31, 2019 10:57 pm

nrakich: Maybe the economy right now isn’t relevant, but the economy in 2020 will be.

natesilver: The notion that a good economy helps incumbents is broadly right, but fundamentals models can be overrated, and some of them are badly designed.

If I’m Trump, I’d be a little scared that my approval rating is only at 41 or 42

perry: If the economy is terrible, will that hurt Trump? Sure. But is the reverse true? Could he lose with a great economy? I think so.

natesilver: I’m not an economic forecaster, but I know that the economy is mean-reverting, meaning that since it’s good now, it’s more likely to get worse than better.

And if Trump’s approval is at 41 or 42 percent with a good economy, where does that put him with a mediocre economy?

nrakich: He definitely has more downside than upside, IMO. Like, it’s harder to see things getting much better for Trump. But it could definitely get worse, if there’s a recession or if special counsel Robert Mueller’s report is really bad for him.

Right now, Trump looks like an even bet for re-election. But the status quo is probably his best-case scenario.

natesilver: I wouldn’t say it’s his best case. You could have 6 percent GDP growth! Who knows!

geoffrey.skelley: All this suggests to me that Trump’s re-election chances are tied to the economic news remaining positive. If that happens, I agree with Nathaniel that he’s a 50-50 bet. If we hit a recession or near-zero growth, I think that makes him an underdog.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... es-so-far/
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Fri May 31, 2019 11:14 pm

These analysts always forget guns babies and Jesus.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:37 pm

2C422769-B346-4828-8DB2-17C2FE8CF2BE.jpeg
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:21 am

If Trump gets 45%, he will get a "Nixon" win, the 68 Nixon. If he gets 40%, he is toast.
The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll does include some gloomier, less sanguine news for the president, however. As The Hill observes, "Only 37 percent of voters said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump in the 2020 presidential election, compared to 42 percent who said they would definitely or probably vote for the Democratic nominee." One explanation for the discrepancy between Trump's more objective "approval" rating and the more subjective "would you vote for Trump" polling metric is the possibility that this president, more than perhaps any before him, is deeply polarizing and elicits very strong personal reactions on both political sides.
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:09 pm

Women candidates. From Reddit
-Sexism didn't make a difference

-uhh....

-Hillary was a horrible candidate

-She wasn't. That's the thing, she was one of the best ever, she had an approval rating of almost 70%, THATS INSANE. But as soon she began ruining for office people's perceptions of her were skewed and coverage of her was wildly off base, sexism is a big part of that. This is a well researched and well discussed phenomenon.

here are a couple of good articles that explain it better than I can.

https://qz.com/624346/america-loves-wom ... promotion/

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/11/us/p ... -2020.html

https://www.thecut.com/2012/12/hillary- ... ch-22.html
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:53 pm

Elizabeth Warren...
3DE38FB9-C3B0-402F-B7DB-7A57B67C9531.png
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:14 am

Kill the babies with tax money!
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:04 am

When the economy is doing well...for now...abortion always bubbles up to be a major issue at the state and national level:
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/2019/06/abortion.html
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:47 am

Politically, abortion has been a stronger voting issue for Republicans than for Democrats. This poll found that abortion ranks as the second-most-important issue for Republicans in deciding their vote for president, behind immigration. But for Democrats, it is fifth — behind health care, America's role in the world, climate change and personal financial well-being.

https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/73018353 ... strictions
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Tero » Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:36 pm

"She's gonna raise taxes to pay for all her fancy plans!"
No.
The critical tweet seems to have found many people on Twitter who don’t agree with its assessment. Many pointed out that the @GOP’s assertion that “everyday Americans” would be paying for Warren’s proposals doesn’t square with that the Massachusetts senator has said.

Warren has said raising taxes on extremely wealthy Americans could help pay for many of her proposals. She’s detailed it in extensive fashion.
https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/elizabe ... gop-tweet/

just the old TAX THE RICH plan
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Re: US Election 2020

Post by Cunt » Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:25 pm

Tero wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:47 am
Politically, abortion has been a stronger voting issue for Republicans than for Democrats.
I think it's because of the extremes.

For me, anyone should be allowed to evict anyone else from their body, for any (or no) reason, at any time.

It's pretty simple, but ugly as FUCK when one examines abortion. I don't try to pretend that a zygote isn't 'human life', or that human life doesn't begin until birth. I think human life began hundreds of thousands of years ago, with very blurry divisions since then.

Anyway, the Dems have been forced to admit that same position, but in ugly fashion. Folks who wouldn't care about the issue, are confronted with 'live birth abortion' and other edges, and most people won't think too deeply, instead will just reject the baby-killers.

It doesn't help at all that Planned Parenthood looks VERY much like a corrupt political organization.
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