Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

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Whose Hard Brexit do you want to get shafted by?

Poll ended at Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:01 pm

Labour's Hard Brexit!
0
No votes
Tory Hard Brexit
1
13%
Cheese or bacon or something
7
88%
 
Total votes: 8

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Sean Hayden
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Sean Hayden » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:56 am

So did Scotland make a mistake when it voted no to independence?

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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by JimC » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:52 am

If Brexit happens, they may well call for another vote, then join the EU as a separate entity. Border control issues would be horrendous...
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Hermit » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:30 am

Sean Hayden wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:56 am
So did Scotland make a mistake when it voted no to independence?
Where are you off to with that? I thought this thread was about Brexit.

Still, I'll bite: No. An independent Scotland lacks the economic wherewithal to survive.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Sean Hayden » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:36 am

I was just thinking about it. I don't have an opinion on it.

Anyway, what you said sounds complicated to figure out. Has anyone done it yet? I bet someone has at least attempted to look at whether or not brexit is ultimately going to hurt them more than leaving would have. But who cares. You can't see Brexit when you're voting no to independence, and making random decisions is mad -eh?

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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Rum » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:52 am

If you break down the way the regions voted, Scotland voted to remain by a substatial majority. They were winners in terms of funding from the EU so they had their practical hats on. An independent Scotland would have had to reapply to join they were told, by Brussels, who discourage regional nationalism big time. The sentiment against being part of the UK added to that vote I would say.

Perversely areas which voted to leave include some which benefit greatly from membership. These include the North East, Wales and. Cornwall, amongst many others. London voted to remain mostly I would say because of its cosmopolitan character.

The pattern is fragmented and the leave vote I think won mostly because of the notion of ‘taking back control’ because of a perception, at least partially real, that we were slowly becoming part of an evolving European state.

Personally I think a rerun is highly unlikely barring something unforeseen. I doubt even the reemergence of the troubles in Ireland would trigger that.

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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Hermit » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:09 am

Sean Hayden wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:36 am
I was just thinking about it. I don't have an opinion on it.

Anyway, what you said sounds complicated to figure out. Has anyone done it yet? I bet someone has at least attempted to look at whether or not brexit is ultimately going to hurt them more than leaving would have. But who cares. You can't see Brexit when you're voting no to independence, and making random decisions is mad -eh?
Yeah, it's complicated alright. Many experts have looked at the situation and have come up with many conclusions, every one of which contradicts at least one other. The economy is known as "the dismal science" for a good reason, though not the one Thomas Carlyle had in mind when he came up with that epithet in 1849 while writing an article in favour of slavery.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould

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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Svartalf » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:51 am

JimC wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:54 am
Is there any politically and legally possible pathway to remain?
the Article of Doom hath been activated, I fear that there's nothing to do, especially since the British have been so insufferable over the last nearly years.. the rest of Eujrope are too happy to be rid of them and to be able to make them squirm at last.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:52 am

The UK cannot cancel the Art. 50 letter. There is no provision. To cancel the whole thing would require changing Art 50 which is a long process of passing a Bill through the EU parliament, Commission and Council with final ratification in the parliaments of the 29 nations. The problem is then what position do you return to. You cant return to pre-Art. 50 letter days. No other country would accept that. So the UK would be back in but with no privileges and refunds paying her full whack. I dont think the Brexiteers would accept that.
In Art. 50 there is a two year transition period which can be extended which would require a majority vote in the Council. The UK has not officially applied for an extension.
It is a total mess but one the hard liners envisaged as plan A failed; the destruction of the EU something also supported by Trump and Putin but for different reasons. The UK in their typical arrogance expected to take the popular vote in the rest of EU when they left. It never materialised. The solidarity shown by the other members shocked the Brexiteers. There was never a plan B.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by pErvinalia » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:53 am

I don't think it can be cancelled. The process for exit has formally begun. The only way it could be cancelled is if the EU agreed with it.

edit: in reply to Hermit. Edit: a number of posts and/or pages ago. Sorry. :oops:
Last edited by pErvinalia on Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Svartalf » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:53 am

Sean Hayden wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:56 am
So did Scotland make a mistake when it voted no to independence?
In a Way, it did, but at any rate a newly independent Scotland might have had to go throughj any number of hoops before being admitted into the EU.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:57 am

Svartalf wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:53 am
Sean Hayden wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:56 am
So did Scotland make a mistake when it voted no to independence?
In a Way, it did, but at any rate a newly independent Scotland might have had to go throughj any number of hoops before being admitted into the EU.
The EU did say it would make it as smooth as possible. This also true of the unification of Ireland.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Svartalf » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:03 am

"As smooth as possible" does not mean free of various hoops, just says they won't be placed unduly high on purpose.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Rum » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:37 am

The EU is very much against the splintering of members States as far as I can see. They would certainly not be encouraging Scotland to part from the UK. Having said that with the UK out, all bets would be off.

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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Scot Dutchy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:56 am

Rum wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:37 am
The EU is very much against the splintering of members States as far as I can see. They would certainly not be encouraging Scotland to part from the UK. Having said that with the UK out, all bets would be off.
The EU has stated that on many occasions as seen with Catalonia but the attitude of the tory party has altered their view. Trying to destroy the EU was not a good plan and will never be forgotten I am afraid. Even the destruction of the UK is still on the cards.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit

Post by Rum » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:02 am

Well that is just nonsense.

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