I think it is highly unlikely, however we may well see a vote on a deal that is on offer in due course and it may well be a choice between that deal or remain. The terms of the original referendum were unclear and wooly - that is half the cause of our present ridiculous situation.
Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
No deal looks the more probable. Especially if May does not survive.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
Nope, if anything, the forces opposing a new referendum are stringently outnumbering those that might be in favor...
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
Thanks guys.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
The second referendum thing was a side show. It does not have the legs.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
and may has committed political suicide, I wonder if she'll even have a constituency to go back to when she's no longer PM.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
She will still be an MP. She is both at present. If her local party decide to de-select her she would be out of a job.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
Another trade deal that the UK will miss:
European Union seals major free trade deal with Japan
European Union seals major free trade deal with Japan
The deal will create a trading zone comprising 635 million people and a third of global GDP
"Wat is het een gezellig boel hier".
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
Who knows? It's down to Parliament. I think it's more likely than it was last weekend, but there's no guarantee.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
...
But I think a second referendum could be more likely under certain circumstances. Regardless of the confidence vote tonight, and regardless of whether the Tories can actually agree on candidates to replace Mrs May, the Parliamentary maths would still be the same, and Parliament would inevitably vote down the negotiated deal. The EU are not inclined to change that deal in any meaningful way - there political responsibilities as well as their legal obligations would not allow it. So MPs might be inclined to boot the matter off to the public in a hurried referendum. In which case the questions would probably be something like...
But I think a second referendum could be more likely under certain circumstances. Regardless of the confidence vote tonight, and regardless of whether the Tories can actually agree on candidates to replace Mrs May, the Parliamentary maths would still be the same, and Parliament would inevitably vote down the negotiated deal. The EU are not inclined to change that deal in any meaningful way - there political responsibilities as well as their legal obligations would not allow it. So MPs might be inclined to boot the matter off to the public in a hurried referendum. In which case the questions would probably be something like...
- Remain a member of the EU
- Leave the EU and accept the negotiated deal
- Leave the EU without a negotiated deal
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Details on how to do that can be found here.
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."
Frank Zappa
"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
With 3 options, the chances of one getting a two thirds vote seem very remote to me. I would expect for the remain vote to be in the high 50s at the most...Brian Peacock wrote:
The one that got more than 2/3rds of the vote would be the winner. Sure, that would be an obvious and manipulative fudge, but it'd probably be something along those lines.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
Well she won the vote of (no) confidence. One less chaotic factor anyway.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
I'm surprised, this latest gust is one I did not expect her to be able to weather.
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
As I said earlier it would be close. It wasn’t actually very close in the end. She won by a decent margin. Let’s hope a little sanity returns. Too much drama!
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Re: Hard Brexit or Hard Brexit
Perhaps they were thinking that any alternative could only be worse...
Does anybody know whether she picked up any minor concessions in her quick jaunt to the EU? And now she's cleared the air with her own party, will she bring on the parliamentary vote on her Brexit plan? EU leaders would have been wise to offer a few minor concessions, which may make it possible for her to get it through parliament...
Does anybody know whether she picked up any minor concessions in her quick jaunt to the EU? And now she's cleared the air with her own party, will she bring on the parliamentary vote on her Brexit plan? EU leaders would have been wise to offer a few minor concessions, which may make it possible for her to get it through parliament...
Nurse, where the fuck's my cardigan?
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