Peak Oil Ground Zero : Australia?

[cronus]

http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/09/02/the ... -reliance/

The dirty topic of peak oil: get ready to reduce your reliance

Wouldn’t it be funny if we spent so long arguing about what to do about climate change that we ran out of cheap oil first? No, it wouldn’t really, it would be catastrophic.

But given the government’s delay in producing an Energy White Paper and the steady backsliding on the need to actually reduce our greenhouse gas emissions in Australia, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. Even the usually optimistic International Energy Agency (IEA) is starting to sound a little nervous.

No one can say with certainty how much oil is left in the ground nor how much it will cost to take it out. As with climate change, the search for certainty in relation to oil supply is a fool’s errand. But while no-one can say with certainty how much is left, virtually no economists or oil industry analysts disagree with the statement that oil production cannot keep growing forever. The notion that oil production must one day peak is now referred to as ‘peak oil’.

While there is virtually no debate that oil production must one day peak, there is much debate about the timing and significance of such a peak. For those who have become accustomed to talking about emission reduction targets for 2020 and 2050 it may come as some surprise to learn that the mid-range forecasts for the peak in global oil production are 10-15 years. This does not mean that there will be no oil in 10 or 15 years time, but it means oil is going to get a LOT more expensive. Put simply, if demand continues to rise and supply starts to fall the days of the average Australian driving their Landcruiser to work will be over.

(continued)

[pErvinalia]

http://www.rationalia.com/forum/viewtop ... 22&t=47210

[cronus]

http://www.rationalia.com/forum/viewtop ... 22&t=47195

[FBM]

Which one do you want me to send to Spam and Trash?

[cronus]

Which one do you want me to send to Spam and Trash?

The other one. This one got more commentary.

[FBM]

At this point, that's not saying much. But OK.

[Tyrannical]

Peak oil won't happen anytime soon, we have plenty of coal and it isn't that expensive to turn coal into oil once we have the infrastructure. Might even be cheaper if we don't have to pay attention to the middle east anymore.

[cronus]

Peak oil won't happen anytime soon, we have plenty of coal and it isn't that expensive to turn coal into oil once we have the infrastructure. Might even be cheaper if we don't have to pay attention to the middle east anymore.

Coal needs to be mined cheaply enough, adds to the cost unless you plan on utilizing slave labour. Especially with feedback pricing mechanisms...taken into account, and mining unions etc feeling they can ask for extortionate pay increases in a 'free' labour market.

[Hermit]

Peak oil won't happen anytime soon, we have plenty of coal and it isn't that expensive to turn coal into oil once we have the infrastructure. Might even be cheaper if we don't have to pay attention to the middle east anymore.

The article states that conversion of coal and natural gas to petrol, diesel and jet fuel is massively more expensive, both in monetary and environmental terms, than that of crude oil. Even if we ignore the enormous cost of establishing the infrastructure to enable it, I don't see how that will change.

[cronus]

Peak oil won't happen anytime soon, we have plenty of coal and it isn't that expensive to turn coal into oil once we have the infrastructure. Might even be cheaper if we don't have to pay attention to the middle east anymore.

The article states that conversion of coal and natural gas to petrol, diesel and jet fuel is massively more expensive, both in monetary and environmental terms, than that of crude oil. Even if we ignore the enormous cost of establishing the infrastructure to enable it, I don't see how that will change.

Hitler made it economical. Not saying I condone his methods, but they worked.

[Hermit]

Peak oil won't happen anytime soon, we have plenty of coal and it isn't that expensive to turn coal into oil once we have the infrastructure. Might even be cheaper if we don't have to pay attention to the middle east anymore.

The article states that conversion of coal and natural gas to petrol, diesel and jet fuel is massively more expensive, both in monetary and environmental terms, than that of crude oil. Even if we ignore the enormous cost of establishing the infrastructure to enable it, I don't see how that will change.

Hitler made it economical.

He did not. When the war machine ran out of crude oil resources, it turned to others regardless of cost. One of my uncles was a petrochemist. He was so important to the Third Reich that he was never allowed to wear a uniform, let alone go within cannon range of the front. Without mentioning figures, he described to me the weird things he was tasked with doing after the Ukrainian oil fields were lost. The cost of converting non-crude oil materials to fuel was astronomical. Yet it was done. There was no choice. In the end he had to develop infrastructure to produce fuel from acorns. Yes, despite the ridiculous amounts of time and money spent for so little return, that is what Hitler ordered, so that was what was done.

[mistermack]

One thing about a world market is that it concentrates the mind on what to buy, for what purpose.
If the price of oil goes up, other fuels become more economic for various uses.
That affects consumption of oil, and hence steadies the price. Also, people can adjust their buying, to things that swallow less oil. They will do that, as the price rises, and there is an awful lot of scope for it.
People drive fewer miles, in smaller cars, and public transport becomes more attractive. Of course, the growth in car and motorbike ownership is pulling the other way.
The market will sort out who does what.

If people abandon the big gas guzzlers, that's no bad thing.

[Warren Dew]

Wouldn’t it be funny if we spent so long arguing about what to do about climate change that we ran out of cheap oil first? No, it wouldn’t really, it would be catastrophic.

So optimistic. There's no "if" here; it's inevitable.

People drive fewer miles, in smaller cars, and public transport becomes more attractive. Of course, the growth in car and motorbike ownership is pulling the other way.
The market will sort out who does what.

If people abandon the big gas guzzlers, that's no bad thing.

Exactly. The market will do what the soi disant environmentalists will not.

[pErvinalia]

"the market"... lol.

[Tyrannical]

Hitler used 1940's technology for coal to oil conversion. I know South Africa also did under apartheid sanctions but I don't know the details. SA also had a nuclear industry, which may have made the conversion cheap enough with a cheap source of electricity.
Much of the added costs are imaginary "environmental" costs such as added CO2, but coal is much easier and more abundant to turn to oil than any renewable biofuel source that is supposed to be the future.
That's even before methane hydrates deep in the ocean, the technology has a way to go but so did offshore drilling once.