Here comes the other economic shoe dropping...

[Atheist-Lite]

Food and energy prices are excluded for good reasons, they are volatile and over time converge to the core.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econo ... 11-24.html

We have many ways of measuring and inflation expectations, they are showing inflation is coming in below target levels.

Food prices especially - don't want to make people over conscious of how much their next meal costs. They may panic and be willing to pay more than double to empty the shelves today if they think the beans are gonna be cleared from the shelves tommorow. What is it they say about every city being three meals away from anarchy? You'd almost believe human beings are just animals who'd put their next meal before money itself rather than rational economists?

[Warren Dew]

Food and energy prices are excluded for good reasons, they are volatile and over time converge to the core.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econo ... 11-24.html

To the contrary, in the long run energy prices drive everything else.

[Warren Dew]

One, who gives a fuck what you folks pay? Most of the reason you folks pay more is your own fault due to confiscatory tax rates on gasoline.

We could eliminate the income tax if we added about a $3 a gallon fuel tax. I think that would be a good trade, as it would encourage the economy to focus on areas other than extracting dead dinosaurs from the ground.

[Coito ergo sum]

One, who gives a fuck what you folks pay? Most of the reason you folks pay more is your own fault due to confiscatory tax rates on gasoline.

We could eliminate the income tax if we added about a $3 a gallon fuel tax. I think that would be a good trade, as it would encourage the economy to focus on areas other than extracting dead dinosaurs from the ground.

True, but the problem with that is the impact on the little guy. $3.00 extra a gallon would add hundreds of dollars per month to many people's commutes. And, since 43% of the population don't pay any federal income tax now, and often are net payees, they stand to take a huge hit.

Foreclosures ticking up again...

One in every 624 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in January, up 3 percent from the previous month, according to a new report from RealtyTrac. Foreclosure activity froze in many states in 2011, due to processing delays after fraud, or so-called "Robo-signing," were uncovered in the fall of 2010. The thaw is now on.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46401756

[gt2211]

Food and energy prices are excluded for good reasons, they are volatile and over time converge to the core.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econo ... 11-24.html

To the contrary, in the long run energy prices drive everything else.

I am curious, did you actually read said link?

EDIT: A couple more things to add to the thread.
1)On inflation. Look at the yield on Treasuries, then think about the implications of the claim that the inflation rate is 10% a year. That would imply investors are receiving a real interest rate of nearly -10%
2)Unemployment claims are below 350k this week.
3)In regards to housing

The MBA reported that 11.96 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q4 2011 (delinquencies seasonally adjusted). This is down from 12.41 percent in Q3 2011 and is the lowest level since 2008.

The report said there was a backlog in foreclosures in judicial states likely due to legal conditions that they expect to start winding down. Non-judicial states have seen their rates drop considerably and are approaching pre-crisis rates.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/ ... ne-in.html

[Coito ergo sum]

Brent crude oil up to $120 -- http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... T620120216

[Coito ergo sum]

Food and energy prices are excluded for good reasons, they are volatile and over time converge to the core.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econo ... 11-24.html

To the contrary, in the long run energy prices drive everything else.

I am curious, did you actually read said link?

EDIT: A couple more things to add to the thread.
1)On inflation. Look at the yield on Treasuries, then think about the implications of the claim that the inflation rate is 10% a year. That would imply investors are receiving a real interest rate of nearly -10%
2)Unemployment claims are below 350k this week.
3)In regards to housing

The MBA reported that 11.96 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q4 2011 (delinquencies seasonally adjusted). This is down from 12.41 percent in Q3 2011 and is the lowest level since 2008.

The report said there was a backlog in foreclosures in judicial states likely due to legal conditions that they expect to start winding down. Non-judicial states have seen their rates drop considerably and are approaching pre-crisis rates.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/ ... ne-in.html

I'm banking on the foreclosure issue having hit bottom in 2010. I'm buying a house accordingly. When I did further research, though, and saw the pent up foreclosure inventories that occurred in 2011 -- I may be buying a bit too soon. But, She Who Must Be Obeyed wants a new and bigger house, so we're going in.

The flim flam you've identified relative to inflation is correct.

NEW unemployment claims are down below 350k. That's good. Let's see what happens when gas goes up to $4.50 per gallon, or higher. The bad times are coming in the spring.

[Coito ergo sum]

Coito, look at your first post in this thread (stock market is doomed!, unemployment near 10%!, inflation soon to be out of control!), then look at today. That's all I ever need to know about your economic acumen. I would bet you any amount of money that we will not hit $5.00/gal this Summer (barring some unforeseen disaster). Why do I say that? Because it's something you're harping on, so it's a good bet it won't come to pass.

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/02/ ... -closures/

CBS2’s Kara Finnstrom reports that a gallon of self-serve regular unleaded gasoline is $4.93 a gallon at a Shell station in the Miracle Mile district.

,..in Los Angeles....

$3.53 to $3.61 in my city and surrounding area - for regular unleaded.

Highest prices ever for this time of year.

Saudi Arabia cuts oil output: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46445698

Iran cut all shipments to the UK and France. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/ ... 7W20120219

[Coito ergo sum]

Unemployment to 9% again? http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup- ... t-february

[Clinton Huxley]

Iran refusing to sell Blighty oil is like us refusing to sell them beer.

[Coito ergo sum]

Iran refusing to sell Blighty oil is like us refusing to sell them beer.

Don't worry, we have your back on the beer front:

American ales from a thriving craft brewing scene can now be found in the UK. Is this a welcome invasion?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/ ... ppest-hops

[Clinton Huxley]

Iran refusing to sell Blighty oil is like us refusing to sell them beer.

Don't worry, we have your back on the beer front:

American ales from a thriving craft brewing scene can now be found in the UK. Is this a welcome invasion?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/ ... ppest-hops

Had a few Yankee ales while I was in San Fran last year. Anchor Steam Beer, I think. Was good.

[Coito ergo sum]

Iran refusing to sell Blighty oil is like us refusing to sell them beer.

Don't worry, we have your back on the beer front:

American ales from a thriving craft brewing scene can now be found in the UK. Is this a welcome invasion?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/ ... ppest-hops

Had a few Yankee ales while I was in San Fran last year. Anchor Steam Beer, I think. Was good.

Did you ask the bartender to microwave it for you?

[Clinton Huxley]

And some Sam Adams something or other. That was nice too.

[Coito ergo sum]

And some Sam Adams something or other. That was nice too.

Various Sam Adams beers are quite tasty.