2012 US Election -- Round 2

[Wumbologist]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0wllKURCq8&t=5m54s[/youtube]

And, factchecking a bit -- Obama's "pension" is, actually, much bigger than Romney's pension (Romney doesn't have a pension),

Semantic argument, if Obama had said "My pension isn't as large as your IRA" it would have technically been more accurate but you're really reaching on that one as a fact-check.

and Romney was correct that the President has investments in China, etc. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49450057

As part of a pension fund that I doubt the President had anything to do with personally setting up, as opposed to Romney-founded Bain Capital which has invested heavily in China and sent many, many jobs there. Hell, they're flying the Chinese flag over Bain-owned Sensata in IL right now as the current employees train their Chinese replacements.

[Coito ergo sum]

New Gallup poll -- R 52% -- O 45% -- http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/elect ... omney.aspx

[Gerald McGrew]

Great debate Tuesday. Both candidates had their moments, but when the dust settled, Romney's most memorable moments were negative ("binders full of women" and the Libya thing) whereas Obama's were positive (the Libya thing and calling Romney on his bullshit).

After the first debate, deeper polling showed that its main effect was an increase in Republican enthusiasm for Romney and a drop in Democratic enthusiasm for Obama. That produced a post-debate bounce for Romney (but not enough to completely erase the lead Obama had going in). As data came in the weekend following the 1st debate, it started to look like Romney's bounce was leveling off.

Then we had the VP debate where Biden mopped the floor with Ryan and helped recover some of the Democratic enthusiasm that was lost the week before. Polls with data after that debate showed that effect, with Obama starting to separate from Romney.

IMO, Tuesday's debate will further that trend. Obama came out strong and assertive, and didn't let stand Romney's promises that everyone could eat all the sweets they wanted and never gain a pound. He also reminded Americans of the "severely conservative" Romney who ran in the Republican primaries. before the etch-a-sketch was shaken and a different Romney emerged.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight is showing that the Romney bounce is over and Obama is maintaining a lead in key states, albeit by slim margins. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

With another debate on Monday and the election in less than 3 weeks, Romney needs to do something to regain the momentum he had after the first debate. OTOH, if Obama can follow up with another strong performance on Monday, and no "surprise" emerges between now and election day, it looks like he'll win another 4 years. Also, it looks like the senate will remain in Democratic control and the House in Republican control. What'll be interesting is if Congressional Republicans actually start to work with Obama rather than opposing everything in hopes of winning the White House.

[Coito ergo sum]

That doesn't figure -- all the polls are saying Romney is either leading, or narrowing the gap in swing states, and Gallup's likely voters national poll says Romney is ahead 52% to 45% for Obama. 538 is showing Romney closing the gap.

Realclearpolitics.com shows Romney on the upswing -- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa and slightly ahead in their overall national average.

This sucker is close.

[Gerald McGrew]

That doesn't figure -- all the polls are saying Romney is either leading, or narrowing the gap in swing states, and Gallup's likely voters national poll says Romney is ahead 52% to 45% for Obama.

FiveThirtyEight is a composite of all polls, not a singular poll. Each poll is weighted differently based on past performance and methodology. Nate Silver made his fame by developing a reputation for being very accurate.

Also, as you should know, we don't elect presidents by popular vote.

538 is showing Romney closing the gap.

Look at the trend lines. Romney's post-debate bounce has ended and the two are beginning to separate again.

Realclearpolitics.com shows Romney on the upswing -- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa and slightly ahead in their overall national average.

I don't know what they're basing some of their state categorizations on. For example, they have Michigan and Pennsylvania as tossups? WTF?

This sucker is close.

It is indeed.

[Gerald McGrew]

Watching the debate with Republicans in Las Vegas...

http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/ ... tch-party/

LAS VEGAS, Nevada — If I learned anything from watching last night’s presidential debate in a room full of Mitt Romney supporters, it’s that President Obama cannot speak English, wanted Americans in Benghazi to die, hopes America will be taken over by the Islamic world, carries a literal Communist Party card, and should be sent back to Mexico.

These were among the accusations flying at a Romney debate watch party Tuesday night in southeast Las Vegas, where approximately 75 Nevadans crowded into a small room to watch the debate and trade jabs at Obama.

Yup...

[Kristie]

Watching the debate with Republicans in Las Vegas...

http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/ ... tch-party/

LAS VEGAS, Nevada — If I learned anything from watching last night’s presidential debate in a room full of Mitt Romney supporters, it’s that President Obama cannot speak English, wanted Americans in Benghazi to die, hopes America will be taken over by the Islamic world, carries a literal Communist Party card, and should be sent back to Mexico.

These were among the accusations flying at a Romney debate watch party Tuesday night in southeast Las Vegas, where approximately 75 Nevadans crowded into a small room to watch the debate and trade jabs at Obama.

Yup...

Way too much stupid there.....

[Wumbologist]

Look at the trend lines. Romney's post-debate bounce has ended and the two are beginning to separate again.

Let's hope it stays that way. I'll say the same thing about Romney as I said about Bush in 2000. If America elects this guy we'll get the president we deserve for it. I was right then, and Republicans are only now starting to admit Bush was a mistake. If we elect Romney, it won't be until around 2018-2022 that I'll get that kind of validation again.

[Gerald McGrew]

Let's hope it stays that way. I'll say the same thing about Romney as I said about Bush in 2000. If America elects this guy we'll get the president we deserve for it. I was right then, and Republicans are only now starting to admit Bush was a mistake. If we elect Romney, it won't be until around 2018-2022 that I'll get that kind of validation again.

I dunno...it may not take that long. W. Bush took over during relative economic prosperity, whereas a Romney administration would be taking over during a tenuous recovery from the worst recession since the 1930's.

But either way, how telling was it that one of the questions of the last debate was "How are you not W. Bush?" And how telling was it that Romney did everything he could to try and contrast himself with W., even though his "5 point plan" is the same list of talking points W. ran on?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu ... _blog.html

[Coito ergo sum]

Watching the debate with Republicans in Las Vegas...

http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/ ... tch-party/

LAS VEGAS, Nevada — If I learned anything from watching last night’s presidential debate in a room full of Mitt Romney supporters, it’s that President Obama cannot speak English, wanted Americans in Benghazi to die, hopes America will be taken over by the Islamic world, carries a literal Communist Party card, and should be sent back to Mexico.

These were among the accusations flying at a Romney debate watch party Tuesday night in southeast Las Vegas, where approximately 75 Nevadans crowded into a small room to watch the debate and trade jabs at Obama.

Yup...

That isn't surprising. It's the same shit you hear from Democrats when talking about a Republican candidate. Only the response from Democrats here will be "well, Republicans really do want people to die, and they really can't speak English, and they really do want people to be poor..." etc...

[Coito ergo sum]

That doesn't figure -- all the polls are saying Romney is either leading, or narrowing the gap in swing states, and Gallup's likely voters national poll says Romney is ahead 52% to 45% for Obama.

FiveThirtyEight is a composite of all polls, not a singular poll. Each poll is weighted differently based on past performance and methodology. Nate Silver made his fame by developing a reputation for being very accurate.

Also, as you should know, we don't elect presidents by popular vote.

Of course I know that, but the trend is that Obama is getting more and more of the popular vote overall, so if Gallup is near the truth, then Romney should be happy with that. I don't think a President has won more than 50% of the popular vote and lost the election. I could be wrong about that, but I think even where a candidate lost the popular vote and still won the election, neither candidate was over 50% of the popular.

Also, I've been watching the polls every day, and it looks to me as if Romney is still narrowing the gap in Swing States, and has taken some leads where he wasn't before. It looks like Obama can write off Florida completely now.

538 is showing Romney closing the gap.

Look at the trend lines. Romney's post-debate bounce has ended and the two are beginning to separate again.

Where are you drawing your trend line from? Yesterday afternoon?

Realclearpolitics.com shows Romney on the upswing -- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa and slightly ahead in their overall national average.

I don't know what they're basing some of their state categorizations on. For example, they have Michigan and Pennsylvania as tossups? WTF?

Yes, because Romney has closed the gap. I saw polls today showing Romney within 3 points in Michigan. I used to live in Michigan, by the way, and from my friends up there, the "feeling" is that it is very close. That's not scientific, of course, but the narroiwing of the polls is.

This sucker is close.

It is indeed.

Yes. I can't imagine why, but it is. How a President can have this record and still be tied. I gotta hand it to them. They know how to sell a pig in a poke.

[Wumbologist]

Yes. I can't imagine why, but it is. How a President can have this record and still be tied. I gotta hand it to them. They know how to sell a pig in a poke.

2004.

[macdoc]

Repuglies can spin anything ....the real wonder is why the Republicans aren't tarred and feathered given their obstruction campaign.
Disgraceful hardly does it justice.
treason more like it.

Can;t believe the Kool aide the right wing swallows that there is some easy fix and all will be well.
good analysis

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/mag ... -guatemala#

[Tyrannical]

Well, Obama is a sinking ship now. Down seven points in the polls, and finally down in the electoral map.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/elect ... omney.aspx

[Gerald McGrew]

That isn't surprising. It's the same shit you hear from Democrats when talking about a Republican candidate. Only the response from Democrats here will be "well, Republicans really do want people to die, and they really can't speak English, and they really do want people to be poor..." etc...

Can you show me where Democrats are saying that Romney has a secret plan to destroy the country so that the communists or Muslims can take over? Or that he's not really an American and actually hates America?

And after that, can you show how those same people have the equivalent influence over the DNC as the Tea Party has over the GOP?