The US elections in November, 2010.

[Warren Dew]

The Senate currently has 48 Democrats + 2 "Independents" (Lieberman, conservative democrat - and Sanders, socialist) who "caucus" with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans.

Slight correction: the senate has 58 Democrats and 40 Republicans. Edit: doh, 57 and 41.

I think the Republicans will make gains in both houses - a fairly safe prediction given that the President's party almost always loses seats in off years. They will not gain a majority in the Senate, but will gain enough seats that filibusters will be much harder to break, which will herald a return to bipartisanship in the Senate. That's a good thing if it means laws become more moderate; it's a bad thing if the compromises are done by giving more pork to both sides.

In the House, where all the seats are up rather than just a third of them, Republicans might regain control. I give it about a 50% chance.

[Coito ergo sum]

Edit OP - Revised

What do you think will happen in what we in the US call the "mid-term" elections?

For those that aren't too familiar with the system, the US Congress is broken up into two halves, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. The House of Representatives contains 435 members who represent "districts" within the state. Districts change from time-to-time as populations shift, because the number of representatives in a state is proportional to its population. California has a lot of representatives in the House, because it has lots of people. Wyoming only has one representative for the whole state, because they have such a low population.

The Senators technically represent "the State" that elects them. Each state has two Senators, regardless of the population of that state, for a total of 100 Senators. The Vice President serves as President of the Senate and breaks tie votes.

Each half of the Congress has theoretically equal power. Proposed laws must pass in both the House and the Senate to become law.

Senators serve 6 year terms. Representatives serve 2 year terms. 36 of the 100 Senate seats are up for reelection in November, 2010. All 435 seats of the House of Representatives are up for grabs.

EDITED: The Senate currently has 57 Democrats + 2 "Independents" (Lieberman, conservative democrat - and Sanders, socialist) who "caucus" with the Democrats, and 41 Republicans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/111th_Unit ... s_Congress

The House has 235 Democrats and 198 Republicans.

So, what are the predictions? Will the House change hands? The Senate?

[Coito ergo sum]

The Senate currently has 48 Democrats + 2 "Independents" (Lieberman, conservative democrat - and Sanders, socialist) who "caucus" with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans.

Slight correction: the senate has 58 Democrats and 40 Republicans.

I think the Republicans will make gains in both houses - a fairly safe prediction given that the President's party almost always loses seats in off years. They will not gain a majority in the Senate, but will gain enough seats that filibusters will be much harder to break, which will herald a return to bipartisanship in the Senate. That's a good thing if it means laws become more moderate; it's a bad thing if the compromises are done by giving more pork to both sides.

In the House, where all the seats are up rather than just a third of them, Republicans might regain control. I give it about a 50% chance.

Good call - I screwed that up.

[Warren Dew]

Good call - I screwed that up.

Heh, so did I. And I'm from the state where that critical 41st Republican was elected.

[Warren Dew]

No argument can be made that the economy is back. An argument can be made that the economy bottomed out and is turning around. But, to suggest that it is "back" is just ludicrous.

An argument can be made that "this is as good as it gets", though.

[Coito ergo sum]

“Democrats kept thinking: ‘We’re going to get better. We’re going to get well before the election,’” said one of Washington’s best-connected Democrats. “But as of this week, you now have people saying that Republicans are going to win the House. And now it’s starting to look like the Senate is going to be a lot closer than people thought.”

A Democratic pollster working on several key races said, “The reality is that [the House majority] is probably gone.” His data shows the Democrats’ problems are only getting worse. “It’s spreading,” the pollster said.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/08 ... z0xiWnPyqW

They had hoped Obama’s popularity – and appeal with base voters and donors – would help at the edges. “The concern I have is that the president is doing poorly in places you need him to perform strongly with your base,” a state party chair told POLITICO. “You need to have confidence in your leader.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/08 ... z0xiXWScry

Several House Democratic sources said they are furious with the White House for keeping the debate over a New York mosque in play for two weeks – and then announcing Obama will use a prime-time address next week to discuss Iraq, not the economy. By the calculations of House Democrats, this means that by Labor Day they will have spent nearly nine weeks this summer beating back negative or unhelpful story lines instigated, in part or in total, by the White House.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/08 ... z0xiXhGUMd

Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly, a second-term congressman from South Bend, is airing a new TV ad in his South Bend-area district pointing out that he voted against “Nancy Pelosi’s energy tax on Hoosier families.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/08 ... z0xiXwfWoy

It’s a spot that is strikingly similar to one Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire is running, which features supporters praising the second-term Democrat for “stand[ing] up” to Obama and Pelosi.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/08 ... z0xiY5TYTc

[drl2]

It will be interesting to see what happens on the republican side when the dust settles after the primaries... how many only-kind-of-crazy candidates will win out over their Tea-Party-Approved certifiably batshit opponents, and will the tea party folks be willing to back the "not conservative enough" candidates in November with any kind of enthusiasm?

[Coito ergo sum]

Democrats face mid-term meltdown: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/44d4b1c4-b52f ... abdc0.html

[Coito ergo sum]

GOP to take House, maybe Senate in November: http://politics.usnews.com/news/washing ... ction.html

[drl2]

I'd have posted those last two links in the "financial meltdown" thread.

[Warren Dew]

It will be interesting to see what happens on the republican side when the dust settles after the primaries... how many only-kind-of-crazy candidates will win out over their Tea-Party-Approved certifiably batshit opponents, and will the tea party folks be willing to back the "not conservative enough" candidates in November with any kind of enthusiasm?

The image of the tea party movement portrayed in the popular press is not really all that accurate. While the press likes to feature weirdos that are accepted by the movement because the event organizers refuse to dictate views to individuals, the real focus of the movement is on economic issues - thus the reference to the Boston tea party - with openness to a wide range of social views.

For example, the mission statement of one typical tea party organization, the "tea party patriots", has three points: "fiscal responsibility", "constitutionally-limited government", and "free markets". Lots of atheists social liberals could feel quite comfortable with that mission statement.

In contrast, I think a lot of party line Republicans are more than happy with big government, and are more concerned with social conformity and the "Christian nation" stuff.

[Coito ergo sum]

Time magazine reports a Republican "tsunami" coming in November: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... 03,00.html

Two months before Election Day, finding a pessimistic Republican strategist is about as tough as spotting a five-legged unicorn on your local interstate. 2010 started on an ominous note for the Democrats when Republican Scott Brown captured the late Ted Kennedy's Massachusetts Senate seat in a special election, and every dynamic that led to Brown's upset has survived or accelerated from late winter into spring, through the summer and now into the cusp of autumn. Republicans are either going to have a fantastic Nov. 2 — or a revolutionary one.

At stake is majority control of the House of Representatives (barring some unexpected turn, almost certainly going to the Republicans); control of the Senate (as of now, quite possibly going to the GOP on a state-by-state basis, and a near certainty if there is an electoral tidal wave); some of the biggest and most politically important gubernatorial slots; and a passel of state legislative seats and down-ballot races that don't get much attention but could be part of yet another major realignment of the balance of power between America's two major political parties.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... z0yqWP75c0

[Coito ergo sum]

Obama support waning in Chicago... http://cbs2chicago.com/local/president. ... 99281.html

[Coito ergo sum]

What happened to Barack Obama's once vaunted political machine? The outfit that put upwards of 8 million volunteers on the street in 2008 — known as Organizing for America — is a ghost of its former self. Its staff has shrunk from 6,000 to 300, and its donors are depressed: receipts are a fraction of what they were in 2008. Virtually no one in politics believes it will turn many contests this fall. "There's no chance that OFA is going to have the slightest impact on the midterms," says Charlie Cook, who tracks congressional races.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/politics/artic ... z0z3tdiqZ3

With less than an hour before President Obama's scheduled speech, 75 seats remained empty in the recreation center at Cuyahoga Community College's Western Campus.
So organizers went around campus and recruited more students to fill the seats.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf ... to_fi.html

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-seven percent (47%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -24 (see trends).
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.
Overall, 41% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

[Ian]

Tea Party/Sarah Palin favorite Christine O'Donnell just clinched the GOP senate primary in Delaware. And with that, the Republicans have pretty much lost all hope of recapturing the Senate in 2010.