The fear of North Korea

[Coito ergo sum]

we should start a movement:

Love Letters for Kim Jong Un dot com.

We can get millions of people to send kindly postcards and letters to Pyongyang, telling them how much we love them. It might confuse them when the round-eyed devils send them kind words.

[Jason]

That would be as useless as flying B-52s around their airspace.

No, what's needed to de-escalate the situation is a solution that allows both sides to save face and feel good about it. Uno and company are trapped by their own rhetoric. They've upped the ante to the point where it would cost them too much to back down (monumentally stupid/arrogant of them). The USA has responded by upping the volume on their threats which only makes NK up the ante even more. However, we're at the river and betting is nearly done. So, unless we want an ugly war, we need someone to step in a broker a diplomatic solution which will let both the USA and Uno step away from the card table with both feeling they haven't lost and can go home and claim victory.

[cronus]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... trike.html

North Korea: 'outbreak of war hours away' as Kim Jong-un plans US strike

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un has ordered missile units to prepare to strike US mainland as a British tour operator was warned that the "outbreak of war probably only hours away".

(continued, last chance to see...)


11 holes in one....11 holes in one....

[Rum]

Bet you are loving this.

[cronus]

Bet you are loving this.

I'm at a safe distance and got the clicker....ready, might put a war movie on later. Life is a tragedy close to, but a comedy from far away. You still listening to The Beatles?

[Coito ergo sum]

That would be as useless as flying B-52s around their airspace.

It was B-2s, and that message is not useless.

No, what's needed to de-escalate the situation is a solution that allows both sides to save face and feel good about it. Uno and company are trapped by their own rhetoric. They've upped the ante to the point where it would cost them too much to back down (monumentally stupid/arrogant of them). The USA has responded by upping the volume on their threats which only makes NK up the ante even more. However, we're at the river and betting is nearly done. So, unless we want an ugly war, we need someone to step in a broker a diplomatic solution which will let both the USA and Uno step away from the card table with both feeling they haven't lost and can go home and claim victory.

Translation, someone should do something about it.

[Rum]

Bet you are loving this.

I'm at a safe distance and got the clicker....ready, might put a war movie on later. Life is a tragedy close to, but a comedy from far away. You still listening to The Beatles?

I don't like you. Please don't direct comments in my direction.

[Jason]

That would be as useless as flying B-52s around their airspace.

It was B-2s, and that message is not useless.

What was its purpose then?

[Jason]

Translation, someone should do something about it.

Clearly. A third party as all the USA can think of is to fly B-2s and B-52s around them.

[Coito ergo sum]

That would be as useless as flying B-52s around their airspace.

It was B-2s, and that message is not useless.

What was its purpose then?

To threaten Kim Jong Un. There isn't any talking going on between the parties here, and the Koreans have very little information that they can rely on. In order to ensure that Un knows that we are willing to nuke him, we have to bring out our nuclear bombers. The message was very clear -- and would be very clear to Un. If you start something, you, personally, are finished. We aren't going to mass an army and gun it out -- we're going to drop devastating bombs that will end it in hours. It's a statement that it is suicide for him.

There are many ways that messages can be misunderstood. Too tame a response to an act or threat of aggression, and the aggressor will think that he can do more without incurring major wrath. One has to make sure that the aggressor knows where he stands. It's schoolyard stuff.

And, we have been trying to talk to these creeps. They aren't making these threats because we're refusing to talk to them. They're making these threats because they want to get something from us.

[Jason]

That would be as useless as flying B-52s around their airspace.

It was B-2s, and that message is not useless.

What was its purpose then?

To threaten Kim Jong Un. There isn't any talking going on between the parties here, and the Koreans have very little information that they can rely on. In order to ensure that Un knows that we are willing to nuke him, we have to bring out our nuclear bombers. The message was very clear -- and would be very clear to Un. If you start something, you, personally, are finished. We aren't going to mass an army and gun it out -- we're going to drop devastating bombs that will end it in hours. It's a statement that it is suicide for him.

There are many ways that messages can be misunderstood. Too tame a response to an act or threat of aggression, and the aggressor will think that he can do more without incurring major wrath. One has to make sure that the aggressor knows where he stands. It's schoolyard stuff.

And, we have been trying to talk to these creeps. They aren't making these threats because we're refusing to talk to them. They're making these threats because they want to get something from us.

Precisely why it's useless. Actually it's worse than useless, it's counterproductive if your goal is a diplomatic solution. That kind of action will only escalate the situation. He doesn't need B-2s flying 10 meters above his palace to know the USA can bomb it. This sort of schoolyard posturing will only push us all into war. And even if you do bomb his palace you'll still have to put massive assets on the ground and quick (necessarily involving several other countries in the process). I've made a few remarks about this potential outcome in the other thread.

[cronus]

Obama is a lame duck president who wants to make his mark on the history books. He's hooked on drone attacks and this has got his fingerprints all over it. Don't tell me that the US/SK hasn't got enough infiltration to head this thing off. The agenda is wind the NKs up and then war. That is what the agenda is. Haliburton is already making contracts with SK for the rebuilding of a re-unified Korea I suspect. Coito isn't naive...he knows.

[Coito ergo sum]

Precisely why it's useless. Actually it's worse than useless, it's counterproductive if your goal is a diplomatic solution. That kind of action will only escalate the situation. He doesn't need B-2s flying 10 meters above his palace to know the USA can bomb it. This sort of schoolyard posturing will only push us all into war. And even if you do bomb his palace you'll still have to put massive assets on the ground and quick (necessarily involving several other countries in the process). I've made a few remarks about this potential outcome in the other thread.

I disagree. It is necessary to show him that we are ready to pull the trigger. Having a gun is not the same thing as being willing to use it. Brinkmanship is a deadly game, and Kim is playing it. If he goes too far, the US will have to react. The way the US let's him know what is "too far" is by showing him. It's like the Cuban missile crisis -- the Soviets knew we could bomb Cuba and go to war -- what had to be conveyed to Kruschev was that we would, in fact, do it.

Your analysis lays all the blame on the US. DPRK ratchets it up -- your statement is that we just basically ignore it. Any show of force on our part is what will cause the war. You don't grant the DPRK status as an autonomous actor here, choosing to play the game their way. Your analysis assumes that the only thing standing in the way of peaceful talks is the US willingness to talk, and not the DPRK's recalcitrance and bellicosity.

Of course he doesn't need B-2s flying over his palace to know he can be bombed. He knows we have submarines that could nuke his whole country. What he does not know is whether we will use them and under what circumstances. What we can't forget is how much of international diplomacy is about balls, rather than rational discourse over mutual interests, etc.

It is also about imperfect information and about countries competing to obtain power and resources. The DPRK is not looking for mutually harmonious settlement of disputes with give and take from each side. the DPRK wants to maintain their hold on power and obtain concessions from the US and ROK -- as much as they can get.

[cronus]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/pictureshow/20 ... do-we-care

Clone wars....never a good sign.

[Jason]

Your analysis lays all the blame on the US. DPRK ratchets it up -- your statement is that we just basically ignore it. Any show of force on our part is what will cause the war. You don't grant the DPRK status as an autonomous actor here, choosing to play the game their way. Your analysis assumes that the only thing standing in the way of peaceful talks is the US willingness to talk, and not the DPRK's recalcitrance and bellicosity.

No. I'm stating that one of the things standing in the way of a peaceful resolution is the SOP of the USA and their complete inflexibility to adapt a more effective strategy which is why a neutral third party is needed here. You assume a show of force will scare NK into backing down. I say that's an erroneous assumption. It will only fuel their propaganda machine further.

"When the only tool you have is a hammer every problem looks like a nail."