The Thread of BREXIT

[MrJonno]

Whatever the results are its already been decided, people are no more likely to change their views than their blood type.

Biggest question is how many will actually bother to turn out, it takes more effort to go to vote on a rainy day for no change than it does to vote for change

[pErvinalia]

Whatever the results are its already been decided, people are no more likely to change their views than their blood type.

Yes, because no one has ever changed their view ever. That's why we never change governments.

[JimC]

In this particular case, Jonno may have a point - those who have clear-cut views will probably not change them in the relatively short time before the vote. Those who are undecided will most probably not vote, given that voting is optional...

[pErvinalia]

Nah, look at any election in the last 30 years. Consistent beliefs have nothing to do with anything. All that matters is who runs the best scare campaign in the weeks leading up to the vote. This one won't be any different.

[JimC]

A referendum like this is very different to an election based on party politics. Given optional voting, I think the biggest factor will be how effectively each camp motivates people to actually come out and vote.

[pErvinalia]

Why would you think it will be any different?? It doesn't require political parties to run scare campaigns. Look at the Unions and business lobby here in Australia during elections. You think the upcoming marriage equality referendum here in Australia won't contain a MASSIVE scare campaign by the Australian Christian Lobby?

[JimC]

I am specifically taking about Brexit - hard to compare to Aussie politics. And ours is a plebiscite, not a referendum, I think; I assume it will involve compulsory voting as usual...

It's the optional nature of the British vote on this which leads me to say that there won't be much effect produced by late campaigns, unless they are very, very dramatic and one-sided. Mostly preaching to the converted, with those who are undecided too apathetic to vote. If I am right, then whatever the current polls are showing will be approximately the final result as well...

[mistermack]

I am specifically taking about Brexit - hard to compare to Aussie politics. And ours is a plebiscite, not a referendum, I think; I assume it will involve compulsory voting as usual...

It's the optional nature of the British vote on this which leads me to say that there won't be much effect produced by late campaigns, unless they are very, very dramatic and one-sided. Mostly preaching to the converted, with those who are undecided too apathetic to vote. If I am right, then whatever the current polls are showing will be approximately the final result as well...

I think I agree, but not enough to put my money on it.
It's a big temptation to have a bet, because I think the vote will be for out, and the betting odds of 2.5 to 1 are very attractive.
At the moment, the opinion polls are for out. But I have a niggling feeling that people who are wavering, and I think that's a huge number, will opt for the status quo in the end.

[JimC]

I am specifically taking about Brexit - hard to compare to Aussie politics. And ours is a plebiscite, not a referendum, I think; I assume it will involve compulsory voting as usual...

It's the optional nature of the British vote on this which leads me to say that there won't be much effect produced by late campaigns, unless they are very, very dramatic and one-sided. Mostly preaching to the converted, with those who are undecided too apathetic to vote. If I am right, then whatever the current polls are showing will be approximately the final result as well...

I think I agree, but not enough to put my money on it.
It's a big temptation to have a bet, because I think the vote will be for out, and the betting odds of 2.5 to 1 are very attractive.
At the moment, the opinion polls are for out. But I have a niggling feeling that people who are wavering, and I think that's a huge number, will opt for the status quo in the end.

Or will not bother to vote at all?

[MrJonno]

This 'debate' has been going on for 30 years, what else is there to discuss?, its not about facts its about identity and when it comes down to human beings do not have as much in common with each other as some on the left would like to pretend.

The Brexist debate is like trying to discuss who is better Metallica or Justin Bieber, few are going have a lot of time for both types of music and what does better even mean.
It's a census not a debate, we aren't counting opinions we are counting what are in effect different species sharing the same land

[pErvinalia]

Too complex. You need to generalise more...

[mistermack]

Or will not bother to vote at all?

There's always some of that. But I'm not sure which side the non-voters would have opted for.

In a general election, there's always a big chunk of people who will just say to themselves "they're all the bloody same, it won't affect me", whereas that doesn't really apply in this referendum.
And equally, non-voters might have the feeling that if the wrong people get in, they can be kicked out in five years time. That doesn't apply to this either.

So you would expect a much higher turnout than a general election.
That's my reasoning, but I have no idea if it will happen that way.
There are a big chunk of people who just never vote. And they probably won't vote this time either.
I think it should be compulsory, like in Oz. And they should make it easy, like by voting online.

Or would that make it too easy for people to be bullied into voting the way of the bully?

[mistermack]

The Queen wants out.

It said so in the Sun, so it must be true.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35762443

If she wants out, kick her out. And the rest of her shower.

[Svartalf]

the queen won't get her arse away from that throne before her horrid son is dead and she can pass the crown to somebody half acceptable.

[Brian Peacock]

The British Monarchy is the epitome of a European, Euro-centric institution. I doubt the sincerity of Sun's (for which read Tony Gallagher's) motivation in splashing that across the news-stands.