North Korea 'test-fires submarine-launched missile'

[cronus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-32671101

North Korea 'test-fires submarine-launched missile'



(continued)

[pErvinalia]

Do they have any submarines to launch them out of?

[Hermit]

Do they have any submarines to launch them out of?

Yes.

[pErvinalia]

Wiki. It was probably written by lil' Kim himself!

[Calilasseia]

Depending upon the nature of the missile, I suspect that the current North Korean submarine fleet isn't capable of deploying SLBMs.

The biggest vessels in the inventory are adaptations of old Soviet Whiskey Class subs, and these had to be heavily modified even to carry the then extant generation of anti-ship missiles the former Soviet Union was developing when these subs were first launched. Hence the ungainly variants known as "Whiskey Twin cylinder" and "Whiskey Long Bin". The former had two horizontal launch tubes for SS-N-3 Shaddock anti-ship missiles, a design dating back to the 1950s, and had both to surface and re-orient the launch tubes vertically in order to fire the missiles. The latter had extensions to the conning tower to accommodate the SS-N-3, but still had to surface to launch them.

As far as is known, the North Korean Navy doesn't have submarines in the tonnage class required to operate SLBMs. A modern SLBM launching submarine would be a minimum of 8,000 tons displacement, and nothing in the North Korean inventory comes even close. The US and UK operate SLBM launching submarines that are even larger than this. The big Trident-carrying subs in the US fleet have a displacement of 16,000 tons, and it would be pretty obvious for several years via satellite photos if the North Koreans were building something like that indigenously. Then the North Koreans have the fun and games of developing their own vertical launch system from scratch, and getting it to work.

In the BBC photo, the missile is leaving the water at an angle too great from the vertical to be an SLBM. It also appears to be far too small. SLBMs are usually substantial missiles - for comparison, the Russian Bulava SLBM is a 36 ton missile. The missile it replaced, the R-39 carried aboard the massive Typhoon Class submarines, was even larger, a whopping 84 tons, and 53 feet long. When these left the water, they quickly assumed a near-vertical flight path. Plus, if you look at the distance from the boat Kim is standing upon, and the exit point of the missile from the water, he's way too close for it to be a proper SLBM launch. Usually, any head of state observing such a test would be positioned three miles away from a proper SLBM launch, and even from that distance, the noise would be apocalyptic once the missile became airborne. Here's a Royal Navy Trident test launch for comparison:



Usually, everything on the surface is told to comply with a LARGE exclusion zone around the anticipated exit point of the missile from the water. That video clip shows you why.

Methinks Kim has been a little hyperbolic with his announcements on the basis of the above.

[klr]

There's a new job for you Cali in North Koera, advising them how to pose photos properly.

Of course, the internet connectivity aren't great.

[JimC]

There's a new job for you Cali in North Koera, advising them how to pose photos properly.

Of course, the internet connectivity aren't great.

But think of all the undescribed Lepidopterans!

[Calilasseia]

The down side of course being that the moment you cease to be useful to the Kims, your next stop isn't a sore pair of buttocks in one hand and your cards in the other, it's a one way trip to a concentration camp and the attachment of electrodes to your testicles.

Though after another five years of that bastard Cameron as prime minister, we might be seeing millions of poor people experiencing this without a flight to North Korea beforehand.

[pErvinalia]

Jeez, did you hear about how he did in his senior military advisor? Blew him to bits with an anti-aircraft gun!

Although, I do wonder how true some of these reports are.

[Hermit]

Jeez, did you hear about how he did in his senior military advisor? Blew him to bits with an anti-aircraft gun!

Although, I do wonder how true some of these reports are.

That's the second time he's reported to have gone for overkill. The first time concerned his uncle. While he did have him executed, the manner of execution turned out to be a fiction.

[Calilasseia]

Hmm, it now seems that a US Navy admiral agrees with me.

But the North Koreans have a track record of fakery in this area.

[Calilasseia]

Oh, and of course, there's the little matter of how US spy satellites would pick up a launch of a genuine North Korean SLBM in a flash. The US is subjecting North Korea to satellite surveillance round the clock. Plus, you can't hide a ballistic missile the size of your typical SLBM from radar. I'm pretty sure that the US 7th Fleet, which is stationed in Japan and has units deployed regularly close to the Korean Peninsula, would very quickly track an SLBM launch if it happened on their watch. I somehow think Task Force 70, which includes the nuclear supercarrier USS George Washington, and Task Force 74, which includes nuclear hunter-killer submarines looking for precisely this sort of activity on the part of the Russians and Chinese, all part of the 7th Fleet, would find it piss easy to detect an SLBM launch by the Kims.

EDIT: The 7th Fleet also includes several Aegis equipped destroyers, including the USS Curtis Wilbur. The Aegis system includes ballistic missile defence capabilities. Of course the US Navy isn't going to tell everyone the details about this, but you can reasonably assume that Aegis works well enough to pick something like this up.