The case against guns

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Re: The case against guns

Post by Seth » Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:48 am

Blind groper wrote:http://reason.com/archives/2001/05/21/m ... -more-guns

Of course Seth believes John Lott is God, and that his book shows that more guns reduces the crime rate, in spite of numerous academics rounding condemning those conclusions. The reference above shows why John Lott was wrong, and why his reported results are phoney.

Of course, there is not a chance in the world that Seth will actually read this reference, since it shows his god to have feet of clay. But maybe it may help someone else to realise the truth.
Let's look at this article for a moment. Here's the concluding paragraph:
Lott has correctly observed that by passing concealed carry laws in various states in various years, the U.S. has been in effect conducting an extremely interesting social experiment. That experiment, in principle, can give us an empirical answer to the relationship between easing restrictions on gun-carrying permits and crime. However, his one-sided analysis of the data inspires little confidence that we can count on him to tell us the true results of this experiment. From all indications it seems that the concealed carry laws probably have had almost no effect, one way or the other.
I'm going to concede arguendo that the final sentence is absolutely correct.

Therefore, the massive increase in the number of firearms, and handguns in particular, being purchased and lawfully carried by individuals in all 50 states pursuant to such laws has no negative effects on public safety.

Therefore, there is no reason to further regulate or ban such activities.

It's pretty simple really. Your argument fails when you conflate the lawful and harmless ownership of firearms with the unlawful or insane use of firearms to cause harm in an attempt to demonize the ownership of firearms generally. It's a stupid conclusion. Not just ignorant, but actually stupid. It's irrational, illogical, biased, hysterical and simply untrue.

So if I arguendo admit that "more guns, less crime" is not factually sustainable, it is still true that "more guns, no more crime," and that therefore there is no need for further regulation since there isn't a problem to begin with.

If what you assert, "more guns, more murders" were factually true, then the murder rate in the US would be on a hocky-stick-like ascent into the stratosphere, just like the faux predictions of the Warmist religion.

Trouble with your theory is it's not happening. The simple observable fact that you cannot refute is that there are more guns in US society, but there is less crime. Whether or not there is causation, there is correlation that's simply undeniable. This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the number of guns in a society is not the controlling factor in that society's crime rate.

Which means your entire theory is disproved by simple verifiable facts.
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"All that is required for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." Edmund Burke

"Those who support denying anyone the right to keep and bear arms for personal defense are fully complicit in every crime that might have been prevented had the victim been effectively armed." Seth

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Re: The case against guns

Post by Hermit » Thu Jan 16, 2014 2:02 am

Seth wrote:As you know, the most accurate number of actual defensive gun uses available is that provided by the FBI itself, after studying case records where the use of a firearm by a victim was documented and investigated, and the FBI uses this hard data to estimate that at least 80,000 people per year lawfully use firearms defensively to protect themselves.

That's ten times the number of people being protected by firearms every year than you cite as being murdered by handguns.

Therefore, the benefit of individuals being armed outweighs the danger of their being murdered by a handgun by ten to one at a minimum, and if the research by Lott and many others is correct, which there is no reason to believe isn't the case even in the face of the allegations made by your pet Harvard hoplophobes who didn't actually replicate the study and find it in error, that number is more like 312 to one.

Setting aside for the moment all the other considerations that make your diatribes so much bilge, that fact alone completely destroys your argument.
You're describing the conditions in the USA. They don't apply to civilised countries. Insularity for the win.

To pick an example of a civilised country where your argument does not apply at all, Australia, the per capita incidence of violent crime is much lower than in the US, and so is the need to defend oneself from armed criminals. There are too few of them about, in part because it is so difficult for them to acquire rifles, shotguns and sidearms. Because of that, we don't feel the need to skulk around with concealed pistols in case we go to, say, a cinema, and have to take a pre-emptive shot at someone who objects to us texting our daughter while an advertisement for an upcoming show is being screened.
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Re: The case against guns

Post by Blind groper » Thu Jan 16, 2014 4:42 am

Seth doing his usual by evading rational argument by saying references are lies, hoplophobe utterances, or plain bullshit, when in fact they are the results of detailed studies published by Harvard University or the New England Journal of Medicine.

Sorry, Seth. That will not wash. Data is needed to refute those arguments, and you have not got it.

On the 80,000 self defense cases you quote, you should admit these are estimates based on surveys which depend on gun nutters telling the truth. What a laugh!

If you look at other nations, where hand gun ownership is effectively zero, and concealed carry does not exist, you find murder rates a quarter or less than that in the USA. For self defense, not having guns reduces murder rates dramatically! As the New England journal tells you.

Also, more gun ownership state by state inside the USA, as my earlier references showed, shows a direct relationship that is quantified as: for every increase of 1% in gun ownership, there is an increase of 0.9% in murders.

I do not think there is much of a relationship between total crime rate and gun ownership, since a criminal can burgle, shoplift, rape, assault, or steal without a gun as well as with a gun. But there is one hell of a strong association between number of guns and number of murders.

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Re: The case against guns

Post by JimC » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:08 am

Blind groper wrote:Hermit

My claim is not 'more guns, more violent crime'. I doubt there is any connection whatever, since violent crime includes everything from hitting your wife, to rape, to a bar-room brawl, to stabbings etc. My claim is that more guns (well, hand guns anyway) means more murders and more suicides conducted successfully. In other words, more hand guns means more unnecessary deaths.

This simple conclusion is so obvious, it is hard to see how anyone could be so obtuse as to deny it. Seth thinks self defense with guns outweighs murders. But only 200 criminals per year are killed in self defense actions in the USA, while 8,000 murders with hand guns happens over the same time period. I would say that the murders outweigh the self defense cases very handily.

And then there is the clear connection, when you compare OECD nations for gun ownership and murder rate. A very clear cut correlation. Also states in the USA. The states with higher gun ownership have higher murder rates. More guns means more murders.

Seth will argue that it is not the 200 deaths that matter, but te times guns are used to threaten criminals. But in every other nation in the OECD, hand guns are not permitted, and there is absolutely no increase in citizens being harmed. Quite the contrary, since every other nation in the OECD has a murder rate that is one half to one fifth that of the USA. Hand guns are not needed for self defense. That is just the NRA rationalisation for their support of the American gun making industry, which bribes them so thoroughly.
There is an excellent argument for maintaining strict gun control laws in countries that already have them, as well as very few hand-guns in circulation. That is an utter no-brainer...

However, in a country like the US, with gazillions of guns everywhere, it may well be true that increased controls on gun ownership (which would be ignored by criminals anyway) would have little effect, and may even, in a few circumstances, allow criminals to kill more easily. As I've said before, it may well be that the US is locked into this gun culture, and simply cannot extricate itself without the situation becoming worse...

Which is not to say that some modest changes in tightening checks on who is allowed to have guns may eliminate some of the crazy spree killing episodes the US is infamous for...

Also, Seth generalises that, because he has a perception of how private gun ownership works in the US, all the countries with sensible gun laws are heading either for a crescendo of criminals killing hapless unarmed civilians, or that that will be at the mercy of the inevitable fascist take-over, which in the US would be prevented by the heroics of NRA members... :roll:

Seth, the USA is not the world...
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Re: The case against guns

Post by Blind groper » Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:44 am

Jim
Nothing in what you say obviates the need for the USA to make a start.

There is nothing that will totally change things overnight, but there are many measures that can get the ball rolling, to cut down on the death toll.

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Re: The case against guns

Post by JimC » Thu Jan 16, 2014 8:46 am

Blind groper wrote:Jim
Nothing in what you say obviates the need for the USA to make a start.

There is nothing that will totally change things overnight, but there are many measures that can get the ball rolling, to cut down on the death toll.
Ultimately, the direction they go in gun control is up to them; I'm mainly concerned with surgically removing Seth's gross projecting of US culture onto a world culture he knows nothing about...
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Re: The case against guns

Post by Hermit » Thu Jan 16, 2014 9:23 am

JimC wrote:
Blind groper wrote:Nothing in what you say obviates the need for the USA to make a start.

There is nothing that will totally change things overnight, but there are many measures that can get the ball rolling, to cut down on the death toll.
Ultimately, the direction they go in gun control is up to them; I'm mainly concerned with surgically removing Seth's gross projecting of US culture onto a world culture he knows nothing about...
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Re: The case against guns

Post by JimC » Thu Jan 16, 2014 9:38 am

Hermit wrote:
JimC wrote:
Blind groper wrote:Nothing in what you say obviates the need for the USA to make a start.

There is nothing that will totally change things overnight, but there are many measures that can get the ball rolling, to cut down on the death toll.
Ultimately, the direction they go in gun control is up to them; I'm mainly concerned with surgically removing Seth's gross projecting of US culture onto a world culture he knows nothing about...
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Re: The case against guns

Post by FBM » Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:24 pm

"A philosopher is a blind man in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn't there. A theologian is the man who finds it." ~ H. L. Mencken

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Re: The case against guns

Post by Seth » Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:55 pm

Hermit wrote:
Seth wrote:As you know, the most accurate number of actual defensive gun uses available is that provided by the FBI itself, after studying case records where the use of a firearm by a victim was documented and investigated, and the FBI uses this hard data to estimate that at least 80,000 people per year lawfully use firearms defensively to protect themselves.

That's ten times the number of people being protected by firearms every year than you cite as being murdered by handguns.

Therefore, the benefit of individuals being armed outweighs the danger of their being murdered by a handgun by ten to one at a minimum, and if the research by Lott and many others is correct, which there is no reason to believe isn't the case even in the face of the allegations made by your pet Harvard hoplophobes who didn't actually replicate the study and find it in error, that number is more like 312 to one.

Setting aside for the moment all the other considerations that make your diatribes so much bilge, that fact alone completely destroys your argument.
You're describing the conditions in the USA. They don't apply to civilised countries. Insularity for the win.

To pick an example of a civilised country where your argument does not apply at all, Australia, the per capita incidence of violent crime is much lower than in the US, and so is the need to defend oneself from armed criminals.
Wrong. The need to defend oneself from criminals, armed or otherwise, is 100 percent and absolute for each and every individual who is victimized by a criminal. The statistical chances of any particular individual being victimized is utterly and completely irrelevant to the need to be armed if and when one is victimized. Every victim needs to be armed, period.

And because it is utterly impossible to predict when, which, where or how many individuals will be victimized, or in what manner and with what severity it is therefore reasonable and prudent to allow every law-abiding person to be armed for self-defense. This is particularly true because merely being armed for self defense poses at best a miniscule threat to non-criminals, and because the right of the individual to effective self-defense in the face of an attack that might be deadly far outweighs the vacuous and paranoid fears of cowards who live in petrified fear of their fellow good citizens who would disarm their neighbors, thereby leaving them helpless in the face of an attack.

The right to individual self defense is not allocated by statistical analysis of crime trends, it's an absolute, unalienable individual right enjoyed in full by each and every individual at every moment in time that they exist.

There are too few of them about, in part because it is so difficult for them to acquire rifles, shotguns and sidearms.
Non sequitur. Criminals don't eschew crime because they don't have guns. Not even in Australia:
AUSTRALIA: MORE VIOLENT CRIME DESPITE GUN BAN

April 13, 2009

It is a common fantasy that gun bans make society safer. In 2002 -- five years after enacting its gun ban -- the Australian Bureau of Criminology acknowledged there is no correlation between gun control and the use of firearms in violent crime. In fact, the percent of murders committed with a firearm was the highest it had ever been in 2006 (16.3 percent), says the D.C. Examiner.

Even Australia's Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research acknowledges that the gun ban had no significant impact on the amount of gun-involved crime:

In 2006, assault rose 49.2 percent and robbery 6.2 percent.
Sexual assault -- Australia's equivalent term for rape -- increased 29.9 percent.
Overall, Australia's violent crime rate rose 42.2 percent.

Moreover, Australia and the United States -- where no gun-ban exists -- both experienced similar decreases in murder rates:

Between 1995 and 2007, Australia saw a 31.9 percent decrease; without a gun ban, America's rate dropped 31.7 percent.
During the same time period, all other violent crime indices increased in Australia: assault rose 49.2 percent and robbery 6.2 percent.
Sexual assault -- Australia's equivalent term for rape -- increased 29.9 percent.
Overall, Australia's violent crime rate rose 42.2 percent.
At the same time, U.S. violent crime decreased 31.8 percent: rape dropped 19.2 percent; robbery decreased 33.2 percent; aggravated assault dropped 32.2 percent.
Australian women are now raped over three times as often as American women.


While this doesn't prove that more guns would impact crime rates, it does prove that gun control is a flawed policy. Furthermore, this highlights the most important point: gun banners promote failed policy regardless of the consequences to the people who must live with them, says the Examiner.

Source: Howard Nemerov, "Australia experiencing more violent crime despite gun ban," Free Republic, April 9, 2009. (emphasis added)
Because of that, we don't feel the need to skulk around with concealed pistols in case we go to, say, a cinema, and have to take a pre-emptive shot at someone who objects to us texting our daughter while an advertisement for an upcoming show is being screened.
I'll bet the 12 people killed and 58 injured in the Aurora, CO movie theater wish somebody like me had been "skulking around with concealed pistols" when the nutcase opened fire.

And suppose that the guy who you're referring to had really cracked and started shooting everyone else rather than firing one shot? Do you suppose someone "skulking around with concealed pistols" might have been useful in putting a stop to the shooting...kind of like the armed school resource officer who put an end to a school shooting in 80 seconds did...as opposed to the two hours that the killers had to run free and kill people at Columbine because there was nobody but them in the school with a firearm?

The thing is, anyone you encounter, any time of the day or night, anywhere you go, could be armed. You'll never know unless and until they pull the gun out to use it. That's why they call them "concealed weapons." What should be of concern to any sane person is that if someone does so with the intent to harm others unlawfully, that there is someone there who is likewise armed who is able and willing to put a stop to the killing.

Gee, what a concept.
"Seth is Grandmaster Zen Troll who trains his victims to troll themselves every time they think of him" Robert_S

"All that is required for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." Edmund Burke

"Those who support denying anyone the right to keep and bear arms for personal defense are fully complicit in every crime that might have been prevented had the victim been effectively armed." Seth

© 2013/2014/2015/2016 Seth, all rights reserved. No reuse, republication, duplication, or derivative work is authorized.

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Re: The case against guns

Post by Seth » Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:57 pm

JimC wrote:
Blind groper wrote:Jim
Nothing in what you say obviates the need for the USA to make a start.

There is nothing that will totally change things overnight, but there are many measures that can get the ball rolling, to cut down on the death toll.
Ultimately, the direction they go in gun control is up to them; I'm mainly concerned with surgically removing Seth's gross projecting of US culture onto a world culture he knows nothing about...
I know plenty, and in particular that this "world culture" is full of idiots, jackasses, morons and slaves who don't understand the first thing about either liberty or reason.
"Seth is Grandmaster Zen Troll who trains his victims to troll themselves every time they think of him" Robert_S

"All that is required for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." Edmund Burke

"Those who support denying anyone the right to keep and bear arms for personal defense are fully complicit in every crime that might have been prevented had the victim been effectively armed." Seth

© 2013/2014/2015/2016 Seth, all rights reserved. No reuse, republication, duplication, or derivative work is authorized.

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Re: The case against guns

Post by JimC » Thu Jan 16, 2014 9:07 pm

Seth wrote:

I'll bet the 12 people killed and 58 injured in the Aurora, CO movie theater wish somebody like me had been "skulking around with concealed pistols" when the nutcase opened fire.
Classic example of missing the point. Hermit was referring to the Australian condition, which is relatively devoid of gun nutters shooting people at random, particularly since laws were tightened. Argue your case for the US retaining its current gun laws - maybe it's so crazy over there that armed civilians are, in a twisted way, a requirement. But don't project US gun insanity onto fortunate western countries that have eschewed your madness...
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Re: The case against guns

Post by Blind groper » Thu Jan 16, 2014 10:59 pm

The USA has 20 mass shootings per year. Australia has not had one since Port Arthur. Maybe gun control does work!

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Re: The case against guns

Post by Seth » Fri Jan 17, 2014 2:41 am

Blind groper wrote:The USA has 20 mass shootings per year. Australia has not had one since Port Arthur. Maybe gun control does work!
It works quite well at making disarmed, helpless victims of its citizens.

The mistake you make in touting the lack of "mass killings" is that you think that past performance is a guarantor of future performance. It's not.

The real question is "how many unarmed people are going to die in the next mass shooting in Australia because nobody else had a gun with which to fight back?

The answer is, "A lot more than needed to die, but who did because of the asinine hoplophobia of people like you."

I bet the poor sods in the shopping mall in Kenya wished somebody besides their fucked-up police and military had been there to help...
...But the most startling component of the report is the dangerous incompetence shown by Kenya's military and police reaction.

Here's what the NYPD found.

Kenya: dramatic footage reveals moment of attack 1:32

Play video

Repeated gunfire can be heard as supermarket shoppers take cover at the Westgate Mall in Kenya. Courtesy CCTV Africa

Tiny attack force

Kenyan authorities have repeatedly claimed that up to 15 heavily armed attackers from the al-Qaeda affiliated al-Shabaab terror group were involved in the operation which overwhelmed the African nation's police and defence forces for three days. Some were supposed to be foreign nationals.

New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly told media yesterday his investigators did not know "with certainty" how many people were involved, "but we believe there were only four shooters."

Their reconstruction of the attack suggests the four men acted in teams of two, coordinating their movements via mobile phone.

Light attack ... The Kenyan mall attackers are believed to have been very lightly armed. A more determined and early police r...

Light attack ... The Kenyan mall attackers are believed to have been very lightly armed. A more determined and early police response may have prevented the high number of casualties. AP Source: AP

Lightly armed

They were supposed to have been wielding heavy machineguns and explosives. But the NYPD says a review of video footage and ballistics evidence shows they were carrying only "light" weapons such as AK-47 rifles and grenades.

Three grenades were used upon their entrance to the mall, after which the terrorists used single-shots to target fleeing shoppers.

While carrying hundreds of rounds of ammunition in magazines strapped to their bodies, the NYPD says the attackers were not wearing any form of body armour or carrying handguns.

There were no heavy explosions. Smoke screens had not been created by setting mattresses and other materials on fire.

Instead, the NYPD says all of the heavy damage to the shopping mall's structure had been caused by antitank missiles being fired into the building by Kenyan military.

Source
Good luck with your next terrorist attack. Just bend over and kiss your ass goodby.

Me, I'll advance and fire till my mags are empty and then take the terrorist's arms and continue advancing and firing until they, or I, am dead.

Y'all cowardly pussies can go ahead and hide behind the planters and let the real men do the work.
"Seth is Grandmaster Zen Troll who trains his victims to troll themselves every time they think of him" Robert_S

"All that is required for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." Edmund Burke

"Those who support denying anyone the right to keep and bear arms for personal defense are fully complicit in every crime that might have been prevented had the victim been effectively armed." Seth

© 2013/2014/2015/2016 Seth, all rights reserved. No reuse, republication, duplication, or derivative work is authorized.

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Re: The case against guns

Post by Blind groper » Fri Jan 17, 2014 3:30 am

Seth

In your heavily armed USA, with 20 mass shootings per year, there has not been a single case where a mass shooter has been stopped by a civilian carrying a gun. By the police, yes. But not by a civilian.

So much for your ideas.

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