Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by JimC » Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:47 am

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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by Hermit » Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:41 am

Brian Peacock wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:17 am
Hermit wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:33 am
JimC wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:24 am
pErvinalia wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:11 am
That links to another general mod warning.
My bad... :shifty:

Now edited to have the correct link...
I actually used the report button quite soon after you posted the good news to get the error fixed. BP closed the report shortly thereafter. I wonder if he even read it.
I fixed the link.... and Jim fixed it again!
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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by Forty Two » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:10 am

rainbow wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:52 am
Forty Two wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:02 pm
Failing to look for work makes you not unemployed. Not being ready, willing or able to work makes you not unemployed (even though you are eligible to be in the labor force).
It doesn't follow.
It's the way the statistics on unemployment have been calculated for many decades. If you aren't ready, willing, and able to work, then you're not in the labor force, and not considered unemployed. In the EU, for example, the unemployed are persons of working age who, in a specified period, are without work and are both available for and are actively seeking work.


rainbow wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:52 am

There are many unemployed that are totally discouraged from seeking employment. The government chose not to count them, because it suits their figures.
Let's say for instance mothers of young children, who can't afford child care. They wouldn't be counted as unemployed now would they?
the method of who to count and who not to count have been the same for many decades.

Mothers of young children who are not actively seeking work would not be considered unemployed, whether in the US or in the EU, or elsewhere in the OECD. That's correct. Nor were they considered "unemployed" in 2016, 2009, 2008, 2001, 1999, or 1992.....

There are, however, various statistics that do capture discouraged and marginally attached workers - see the various rates which in the US are "U1, U2, U4, U5 and U6. The national rate - the one used in the media - is U3, and that "official national unemployment rate" is calculated the same way as all other western industrialized countries have done for decades.
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by pErvinalia » Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:46 am

It's amazing how you think this is a Europe vs US thing. You just can't help yourself, can you?
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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by Forty Two » Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:08 am

pErvinalia wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:46 am
It's amazing how you think this is a Europe vs US thing. You just can't help yourself, can you?
What are you on about?

Rainbow said that the actual, literal definition of the official unemployment rate "doesn't follow." I responded that Europe, the US, and the rest of the OECD all use the same concept: unemployed means ready, willing and able to work and actively seeking employment.

Not only does it "follow", it's the same method used for many decades. It's not controversial at all. Similar methods are used for comparison purposes, so when you see the unemployment rate for the EU being, say, about 6.5% and the rate in the US being 3.8%, those numbers are comparable.

In the US, the "side" advancing this kind of point switches with the party in power. When Obama was President, it was Republicans who would claim that the "real" unemployment rate was so much higher than the official rate, and suggesting that the numbers were polished and scrubbed to paint a rosy picture. When Bush (and now Trump) became President, the roles reversed, and it was the Democrats claiming the unemployment numbers were cooked because they don't even count discouraged workers, etc. Yet, the methodology hasn't changed and the numbers are comparable.
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by rainbow » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:49 am

Forty Two wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:10 am
It's the way the statistics on unemployment have been calculated for many decades.

the method of who to count and who not to count have been the same for many decades.
Yes, yes.

Just because it has suited governments to lie about the real situation, doesn't make it valid.

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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by Forty Two » Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:00 pm

rainbow wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:49 am
Forty Two wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:10 am
It's the way the statistics on unemployment have been calculated for many decades.

the method of who to count and who not to count have been the same for many decades.
Yes, yes.

Just because it has suited governments to lie about the real situation, doesn't make it valid.

:fp:
It's not a lie, as the definition is public, prominent, and clear. Not only that, but the official unemployment rate (in the US) is called "U-3" -- there are six different stats, with the one you're more interested in being U-6. Just because you prefer to look at U-6 doesn't mean U-3 is somehow invalid. They're different stats, with different uses.

This is neither nefarious, nor unusual.
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by rainbow » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:38 am

Forty Two wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Not only that, but the official unemployment rate (in the US) is called "U-3" -- there are six different stats, with the one you're more interested in being U-6. Just because you prefer to look at U-6 doesn't mean U-3 is somehow invalid. They're different stats, with different uses.
:bored: Fascinating :bored:

I didn't say u-3 was invalid. It is misleading.

How was that difficult to understand?
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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by Forty Two » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:28 pm

rainbow wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:38 am
Forty Two wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Not only that, but the official unemployment rate (in the US) is called "U-3" -- there are six different stats, with the one you're more interested in being U-6. Just because you prefer to look at U-6 doesn't mean U-3 is somehow invalid. They're different stats, with different uses.
:bored: Fascinating :bored:

I didn't say u-3 was invalid. It is misleading.

How was that difficult to understand?
It's not misleading. The criteria are well-known. It's just that you want the number to be worse, now. So, rather than understand that relative to the U-3 number for the past 50 years, it's phenomenal - practically the lowest ever. Comparing apples to apples, Trump's unemployment numbers are fantastic. Can't get around that. So, you go for a tangential attack - let's just pretend the entire system is invalid, and so we can't trust the numbers...now, of course... they were certainly trustworthy when Obama was taking credit for them in 2016....
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by Brian Peacock » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:24 pm

The problem here is in focusing only on one set of numbers or another to infer wider un/employment trends. What proportion of the working age population in the US are economically inactive, for example? Identifying the number of people of working age outside the labour market as a percentage of the working population as a whole helps to give a broader picture of these trends. In the UK and the EU that % has been falling since c.2014 after steep post-crash rises - currently at c.18% EU-wide {lowest: Slovenia 9.7%, highest: Italy 32.7%}.
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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by rainbow » Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:11 am

Forty Two wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:28 pm
It's just that you want the number to be worse, now.
I do?
Perhaps you need to get a refund from your "Mind Reading in 15 Days!!!" course?
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Re: Lies, Statistics and Unemployment Figures

Post by Forty Two » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:39 pm

Brian Peacock wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:24 pm
The problem here is in focusing only on one set of numbers or another to infer wider un/employment trends. What proportion of the working age population in the US are economically inactive, for example?
Labor participation rate is about 63% right now. That's the percentage of working age population who are available for work. I.e., that's the employed plus the unemployed (the labor force). Europe overall is at about 57% give or take (end of 2018 numbers), and some countries are higher and others lower, obviously.
Brian Peacock wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:24 pm
Identifying the number of people of working age outside the labour market as a percentage of the working population as a whole helps to give a broader picture of these trends. In the UK and the EU that % has been falling since c.2014 after steep post-crash rises - currently at c.18% EU-wide {lowest: Slovenia 9.7%, highest: Italy 32.7%}.
Can you cite to the stat on this?

I agree, no one measure, whether it be official unemployment rate, wealth inequality, etc. is determinative of the health and well being of an economy or a society. That's why there are many different numbers.
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar

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